Elena Rybakina Upsets Aryna Sabalenka at WTA Finals Match

Elena Rybakina finished her 2024 season on a high note by defeating world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka in a dramatic three-set match at the WTA Finals in Riyadh. Rybakina won 6-4 3-6 6-1 in her final round-robin match, a result that came after two earlier losses in the group stage to Jasmine Paolini and Qinwen Zheng.

While the former World No.3 knew she was already eliminated from semifinal contention, her victory over Sabalenka marked a significant upset, as she handed Sabalenka her first loss since becoming the world No. 1. Throughout the 2024 season, Rybakina has enjoyed an impressive run, winning the Stuttgart Open, Abu Dhabi Open, and Brisbane International, and boasting a 42-11 win-loss record. Despite the loss, Sabalenka had already secured her spot in the semifinals, having won earlier group-stage matches against Paolini and Zheng.

Overview of the Match: Rybakina vs Sabalenka

The match was a tough contest. Rybakina broke Sabalenka five times out of seven opportunities, while the three-time Grand Slam Champion only converted three of her seven breakpoints. The Kazakh also dominated in receiving points, winning 31 to Sabalenka’s 22. Rybakina is one of just four players to have secured six or more wins against world No. 1-ranked players over a two-season span.

The Kazakh hit six aces, edging out Sabalenka, who served four aces. The 25-year-old was highly effective on her break points, converting five out of seven, compared to the 26-year-old three conversions from seven opportunities. Rybakina won 79 points in total, while the World No.1 won 64, highlighting Rybakina’s superior play throughout the match.

Rybakina’s service game was solid, winning 10 of 13 service games, while Sabalenka won eight of 13. The former Wimbledon champion hit 49 service points, just slightly ahead of Sabalenka’s 46. On her first serve, Rybakina had a slightly higher win percentage (57%) than Sabalenka’s 53%.

Sabalenka’s Semifinal Opponent

Sabalenka has a potential semifinal meeting lined up with Iga Swiatek. The Belarusian has historically had a difficult task against the Pole, particularly on clay. Sabalenka’s head-to-head record with Swiatek stands at 4-8, but they are even at 3-3 on hard courts. Sabalenka won their most recent meeting at the Cincinnati Open semifinals en route to winning the title. Swiatek needs a win in her final match against Daria Kasatkina, who joined Riyadh after the withdrawal of Jessica Pegula. The World No.2 lost her latest WTA match to Coco Gauff, which makes this a potential knockout match for her. The duo were battling for the World No.1 ranking this week in Riyadh before Gauff beat Swiatek in the group stages to end the Pole’s pursuit.