Connor Dewar, a 24-year-old forward, was acquired by the Toronto Maple Leafs during the trade deadline from the Minnesota Wild. In exchange, Dewar received the rights to prospect Dmitry Ovchinnikov and a 2026 fourth-round pick. Nick Robertson and Noah Gregor are the other two expiring restricted free agents (RFA) forwards on the team. Predicting Dewar’s next deal is a good endeavor since he is probably going to get extended, especially in light of the cap squeeze the Maple Leafs will face in 2024–2025.
Similar to what I mentioned with RFA defenseman Timothy Liljegren, I find it difficult to see Dewar signing a longer-term contract. As a defense-first, bottom-six player, he is a genuine 24 year old, and such forwards rarely sign contracts longer than three years.
Since Dewar is only 24 years old and has a limited offensive impact, it can be challenging to find contract comparable for him. He is completely dominant when it comes to shutting down opponents and playing the penalty kill with great success on the other side of the ball. He set career highs in both goals (11) and points (19) during the most recent campaign. His anticipated goal share (xGF%) was only 47.37% when he was with Minnesota, but following the trade, he posted an xGF% of 51.25%, indicating a turnaround in his play. Dewar led the Maple Leafs in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60), which indicates that when he was in the ice, the opposition found it more difficult to create scoring opportunities than anybody else in Toronto.
