The Toronto Maple Leafs’ defense improved this summer, but their offense deteriorated.
The Toronto Maple Leafs got Chris Tanev, which is fantastic, but they also lost Tyler Bertuzzi, which effectively negates all of the benefits of adding Tanev.
To make matters worse, the Leafs still have Calle Jarnkrok, David Kampf, and Ryan Reaves on their roster, resulting in an unusually high $6 million cap charge.
With those players remaining on the roster, their forward group’s bottom six appears to be in disarray. It’s both pricey and awful, with virtually little upside.
In short, it stinks.
The Toronto Maple Leafs bottom six is brutally awful, bordering on atrocious.
According to the Leafs’ current dailyfaceoff page, their projected third and fourth lines for next season are as follows:
Holberg-Domi-Jarnkrok is followed by the NHL’s most expensive and weakest fourth line, Dewar-Kampf-Reaves.
It should be clear that the Leafs cannot compete with that lineup.
But, before we get started, let’s make a few tweaks because Max Domi was almost certainly re-signed to play on Auston Matthews’ flank. He is so poor defensively that having him at center makes it impossible to get any favorable minutes from their best players because a Domi line needs to be shielded in order to flourish.
So let’s simply swap Domi with Holmberg and move Bobby McMann from the top six to the bottom six to make way for Domi up there.
Ideally, I’d want to see Marner at 2C and Tavares at 3C, but the club hasn’t indicated that they’d consider it, so for evaluation purposes, I’ll assume everyone stays in their current positions.
This gives us a bottom six of McMann-Holmberg-Jarnkrok + Dewar-Kampf-Reaves, which is actually worse.
McMann is a nice player, and if Nick Robertson stays, you’ll have the beginnings of a much stronger third line, but Jarnkrok, Reaves, and Kampf are still pricey and not worth anything near to their salaries. Let’s simply assume the Leafs remove them from the roster, because if they don’t, they’re mismanaged to the point of neglect.
Pontus Holmberg has talent, but using him as the third line center for the entire season is a ridiculous idea. Dumping Kampf and giving his place to Holmberg is the right move.
Dewar is not worth re-signing or paying more for when the Leafs can have both Easton Cowan and Fraser Minten in their roster next season for the league minimum.
Alex Steeves needs to be re-signed, but he is an obvious alternative for Reaves, who is no longer in the NHL.
The Leafs’ bottom six may look like this: Cowan-Minten-Robertson on the third line, then McMann-Holmberg-Steeves on the fourth.
This provides the Leafs a lot of depth scoring and upside at the bottom of their lineup. It could be even better with Tavares at 3C and Marner at 2C, but even without those changes, I truly enjoy this lineup.
However, the Leafs are not required to offer the rookies these minutes during the season. It all comes down to giving them an extended audition. If they succeed, all the better. If they don’t, there are plenty of alternatives.
As the season progresses, the Leafs will gain a better grasp of how excellent these new players are. If they are unable to hack it, they can be replaced by Marlies or through trade.
If the Leafs trade Kampf, Reaves, and Jarnkrok and do not sign Jani Hakanpaa, they will have approximately $5 million in cap space, which, if they avoid the LTIR, will expand as the season proceeds to the trade deadline, when they may add a great player with the extra money if they so wish.
One thing is certain: the present projected bottom six is costly and detrimental to the team. Who knows what Craig Berube has in mind, but Brad Treliving clearly has work to do this summer.
