MONTREAL, QC - FEBRUARY 10: Montreal Canadiens interim head coach Martin St-Louis addresses the media on February 10, 2022, at Bell Sports Complex in Brossard, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Based on their lack of engagement in free agency, the Montreal Canadiens are definitely aiming for organic progress in the standings in 2024-25. Bless his heart, Alex Barre-Boulet can only accomplish so much as a borderline NHL player. Their younger players will need to advance in their development before the team can move forward.
Expectations are still high, but not to the point that analysts predict the Canadiens will make the playoffs next spring, which is reasonable. In the end, they only finished sixth from last. And, while the Habs may be able to make the playoffs the following season, they still have a long way to go. Nonetheless, provided they remain healthy, simply competing for a slot is a reasonable ambition.
However, the Canadiens did finish last in the Atlantic Division in 2023-24. They have three non-playoff teams above them in a similar situation, each with fans hoping for better things next season. To advance to the playoffs, the Habs must first leapfrog them. However, fans have solid reason to be positive in each scenario.
Assuming the status quo continues and all of the Atlantic clubs that made the playoffs last season return (for the sake of simplicity), let’s take a look at how the three non-playoff Atlantic teams’ offseasons have gone thus far. Despite common belief, the Canadiens seem good on paper, suggesting that they can climb the standings.
Ottawa Senators
The Ottawa Senators had the shortest postseason drought of any team on this list (excluding the Canadiens), lasting seven seasons. However, given how they declared the rebuild a few seasons ago, it may be a source of more shame, especially given that they finished only two points ahead of the Habs in the Atlantic in 2023-24 (78 points). While it’s unfair to argue they’ve gone worse, given their abundance of young talent, they certainly haven’t gotten better.
If the Canadiens are so far from making the playoffs in the view of many, shouldn’t the Senators be perceived similarly, based only on the standings? Yes, but with the offseason acquisition of Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender Linus Ullmark (2023), the hope is that they have finally solved their issues. You may simply ignore how the now-31-year-old Ullmark was unable to lead the Buffalo Sabres (a later entry on this list) to victory, despite playing for them in some capacity from 2015 to 21.
There’s no disputing Ullmark deserved the Vezina. In the record-breaking 2022-23 Boston Bruins season, he finished 40-6-1 with a 1.89 GAA and.938 SV%. However, Senators supporters should be concerned because he began regressing to the mean in 2023-24, going 22-10-7 with a 2.55 GAA and.915 SV%. Those are still impressive numbers (worthy of the first-round pick the Senators gave up to acquire him). However, the Senators are not the Bruins.
Simply put, you can’t expect Ullmark to plug all of the Senators’ flaws. To be fair, he should help address the 28th-ranked 3.43 goals against average (tied with the Canadiens for the record). They also had a respectable 29.7 shots against per game, ranking 13th. However, Nick Jensen is unlikely to have a greater net-positive influence on defense than outgoing Jakob Chychrun, for whom he was traded. Chychrun, who is more offensively inclined, is more valuable, as the Sens just ended 20th in terms of offense (3.05 goals per game).
The Senators just signed unrestricted free agent David Perron to aid with the offensive (along with Michael Amadio and Noah Gregor). However, Perron, 36, is more of a half-point-per-game player at this point, but only if he is given top-six minutes. With the Sens having lost Chychrun on defense, as well as Vladimir Tarasenko and the underappreciated Mathieu Joseph up forward, arguing that the team has improved dramatically enough to make the playoffs is difficult, even if Josh Norris and Shane Pinto play full seasons. So, despite an inflated offseason for the Sens and a mere two points separating them from the Habs, they remain a squad well within striking distance of the latter.
Detroit Red Wings
Last season, the Detroit Red Wings came closest to making the playoffs, with 91 points, tied with the eighth-place Washington Capitals. Actually facing the Canadiens on back-to-back nights to end the regular season, they lost due to a lack of regulation wins, which was the first tiebreaker. For the record, the Habs did not play a role in the final outcome despite pushing the Wings to their limits on both occasions, losing in overtime and a shootout (5-4 in each case). The regulation-win differential was too high to account for the disparity.
All that being said, it would be a huge disappointment for Red Wings supporters if they missed the playoffs for the eighth consecutive season. This will be a reoccurring topic on this list, putting the Canadiens’ troubles in context.
It would not only be disappointing, but also unexpected in some circles if the Red Wings did not take the next stage. After all, they’ve increased their point totals each season since 2019-20, when they only had 39 in 71 games. Here’s why they might not make the playoffs:
They’ve virtually replaced goalkeeper James Reimer with Cam Talbot, defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere with Erik Gustafsson, and Perron with Tarasenko in the front. However, they lost Daniel Sprong to free agency and traded Robby Fabbri to the Anaheim Ducks (for a 2025 fourth-round pick and ECHL goalkeeper Gage Alexander). Tarasenko, who is clearly in the back nine of his career at this time, having only played 13:22 a game in the playoffs for the Florida Panthers (less than Eetu Luostarinen and Evan Rodrigues), is a minor offensive upgrade over Perron.
Tarasenko, however, is not guaranteed to outscore Perron (17 goals, 47 points) from the previous season. Tarasenko is unlikely to completely replace the output of Perron, Fabbri, and Sprong, with Tyler Motte the only other big addition to the Wings’ offensive line.
While the Red Wings’ offensive was not necessarily an issue, their defense was, as they outscored the opponent by only four goals. Replacing a 56-point Gostisbehere with a 31-point Gustafsson, who is also notorious for his defensive flaws, will not help. Neither will sending the underrated Jake Walman to the San Jose Sharks for a 2024 second-round pick, as the Wings appear to make room for prospect Simon Edvinsson.
Goaltending was another major issue, with Alex Lyon taking over for 44 games and outperforming Ville Husso, who has remained in the lineup, and Reimer. However, Lyon, who is approaching 32, has yet to establish himself as a legitimate NHL goalie. Last season, his.904 save percentage (SV%) and 3.05 goals-against average (GAA) were below par. If Talbot is the Wings’ answer, fans should be concerned about the number of question marks that remain, as he is 37 and, while good, has yet to demonstrate his ability to make a difference on teams with a history of defensive issues. As a result, the Red Wings aren’t as certain to make the playoffs as many people believe.
Buffalo Sabres
Interestingly, the Sabres are one of the most prominent instances of why the Wings may not go to the next level. Go back to 2022-23. The Sabres missed the playoffs by one point, believing everyone they were on the verge. The team ended up regressing, dropping from 91 points in the standings to 84, marking 13 straight non-playoff seasons, as star Tage Thompson failed to build on his 94-point performance in 2022-23, scoring only 56 instead.
If the Sabres re-sign No. 1 goalie Ukko Pekka-Luukkonen (which they must do because the freshly acquired Reimer isn’t an asset in net at this juncture), two more things must happen for them to make the playoffs. To begin, Thompson must rebound because none of their other front-line acquisitions (Jason Zucker, Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Sam Lafferty, Ryan McLeod, and Beck Malenstyn) can compensate for the loss of offense provided by the departing Jeff Skinner and Victor Olofsson (and all-star Zemgus Girgensons) on paper.
Granted, neither Skinner nor Olofsson had successful years by their own standards. If you expect Thompson to recover, you should offer them the same benefit of the doubt. The simple line is that the status quo will not suffice, which is why the Sabres, more than the Red Wings and perhaps even more than the Senators, are likely banking on all of their young players to improve dramatically on the fly: Zach Benson, Peyton Krebs, Jack Quinn, and so forth.
That’s the second thing that needs to happen, and it puts the Sabres in the same boat as the Canadiens. The Sabres are the NHL’s youngest team (according to Left Wing Lock). The Canadiens are not far behind at No. 4, with Cole Caufield, Kirby Dach, Alex Newhook, Juraj Slafkovsky, Nick Suzuki, and Kaiden Guhle serving as their core, all of whom are 25 years old or younger.
The Canadiens may not have a game-changing talent like Thompson (at least not in the near future, after picking Ivan Demidov). However, if the game-changing skill isn’t delivering, you must go elsewhere. Both rosters are full of youthful players. It begs the question: in which group do you have more faith?
Perhaps the three entries above have improved this offseason, but not by the leaps and bounds that their respective fans may say, based on this ranking of the most improved clubs through free agency. None made it. The Canadiens may not have made a major acquisition, but they also did not lose any significant players. So, how much faith do you have in the development of the young club that general manager Kent Hughes has assembled, one that has progressed dramatically, at least in terms of points, over the last two seasons? A third should not be out of the question.
