Examining The Nolan Arenado Trade Three Years Later
It was a trade that shook the league. The Colorado Rockies sent $51 million and their franchise player, Nolan Arenado, to St. Louis. In return, Colorado got zero top 100 prospects and a young starting pitcher with limited major-league experience in left-handed pitcher Austin Gomber. The immediate reaction was perplexity and anger directed toward the Rockies by their fans and MLB insiders. How could the Rockies trade their franchise player, a perennial all-star who led them to the playoffs in 2017-18, after Arenado was signed to an eight-year deal worth $260 million with the Rockies in 2019? How did it all go so wrong? The trade is one of the worst in league history, but three years later, the results aren’t what anyone anticipated.
Examining The Nolan Arenado Trade Three Years Later
Elite Defense, But…
Rockies fans remember it well. Arenado was out the door, and star shortstop Trevor Story would soon be next amid another season, nowhere near the playoffs. All Rockies fans could look forward to was Arenado’s return to Coors Field in July for the Midsummer Classic. The Rockies would remain in obscurity due to ownership prioritizing money over fielding a competitive team, while Arenado competes for the World Series every year.
It did not entirely turn out that way. Arenado maintained his peak defense with the St. Louis Cardinals, winning Gold Gloves in 2021-22. But in 2021, Arenado finished with the lowest batting average of his career, .255 (excluding the shortened 2020 season). His OBP and SLG were the worst since his rookie season. His 34 home runs and 105 RBI were the lowest since 2014, when he hit 18 home runs and 61 RBI.
Postseason Struggles
The postseason was even worse for Arenado.
After going 90-72 in 2021 and finishing first in the National League Central, the Cardinals lost 3-1 to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Wild-Card game, Arenado went 0-4. He had a much better 2022 as he hit .293/.358/.538, his highest mark since 2019. He finished 3rd in MVP voting while leading the Cardinals to a 93-69 record and another first-place finish in the NL Central. But the Cardinals fell short again, losing 2-0 to the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL Wild-Card series. In eight at-bats, Arenado recorded one single with two strikeouts. This is not how this trade was supposed to go. Arenado was supposed to be front and center on the Cardinals, but he finally got to play for the Pennants and World Series as he had desired. But he continued to struggle in the postseason.
Per Statmuse, in four postseason appearances between the Rockies and Cardinals, Arenado hit .152/.143/.242 with five hits, one home run, three RBI, and nine strikeouts across 35 plate appearances. The Cardinals have not been back to the postseason since 2022, finishing below .500 in two straight seasons for the first time since 1958-59. Arenado wasn’t an All-Star and finished with his lowest OPS since 2014 this season. The Rockies will always get scrutinized for the Arenado trade, but do they miss him?
The Return For The Rockies
Three of the four prospects involved in the trade have failed to crack the Rockies roster since the trade, and two of them are no longer with the organization. First baseman/third baseman Elehuris Montero came up to the Rockies in 2022 but failed to find his offense in Colorado, hitting .228/.277/.387 with only 21 home runs and 87 RBI in 205 games. Montero was designated for assignment this season but returned to the organization after clearing waivers.
The main return in the trade for the Rockies was Gomber. Gomber finished 2021 with a 4.53 ERA with 113 strikeouts to 41 walks in 115.1 innings for the Rockies. In 2022-23, he struggled to a 5.50 ERA but did record 182 strikeouts to 77 walks in 60 combined games. In 2023, he talked about struggling with expectations as the headliner of the Rockies package in the Arenado trade.
But he accepted that he was never going to be Arenado, and a solid 2024 followed. He went 5-12 with a 4.75 ERA and 116 strikeouts to 38 walks in 165 innings pitched. Gomber had a lights-out May, going 3-1 with a 0.68 ERA and 19 strikeouts to six walks in 26.2 innings. He finished with 12 quality starts this season and the highest WAR (2.2) of the Rockies rotation. Per Spotrac, Gomber has 1 year remaining on his contract worth $5.2 million. He will look to remain a key fixture in the rotation in 2025.
Who Won The Trade?
The Rockies will always lose this trade based on the value they failed to recoup for Arenado. However, the Cardinals have not gotten the postseason results they hoped for when they acquired Arenado in 2021, so they technically haven’t won the trade either. Meanwhile, the Rockies have recorded their first 100+ loss seasons in franchise history in 2023-24. However, Ryan McMahon has filled in admirably at third base for the Rockies. While he has struggled to put a whole season together offensively, he has kept the standard of elite defense at the hot corner for the Rockies.
McMahon earned his first All-Star appearance in 2024 thanks to a great first half offensively and his shutdown defense. He finished with a .966 fielding percentage in 2024 while ranking 24th among current players with a Defensive WAR of 9.1.
There is no disputing that Arenado played at a Hall-of-Fame level for the Rockies and was arguably the best defensive third baseman in the league. They were a great match, and Arenado has not been the same player since he left the Rockies. Perhaps he would have been better off staying in the purple pinstripes, but that will always be left up to the imagination.
